来源：【证券时报】

李宇嘉

dangxia，kuoneixubeishouzhongshi，danyouxiaoneixudezuidaqianlizaina？dangshulaojiuxiaoqu。jinqi，laojiuxiaoqugaizaomingxiantisu，zhujianbumingque2020nianyaogaizaolaojiuxiaoqu3.9wange，bi2019nianyaofanyibei。wentishi，zi2015nianguojiatichulaojiuxiaoqugaizaoyilai，zheiyiminshenggongchengjinzhanhenhuanman，2015-2019nianjinwancheng4wangexiaoqugaizao。zhuyaoyuanyinshi，laojiuxiaoqujichusheshideqianzhangtaida，zhuhushourushuipingpubianbugao，laolinghuachengduzhong，jimaosuanpideshiduo，liyiguanxipangencuojie，shehuizibenbuyuanjinru，cailiyewulifudanhedoudi。

bizherenwei，chuleshuidianqiluguanwangdengjichusheshi“buduanban”wai，nengfoutuijinjiazhuangdianti，jiangshidatonggaizaogehuanjiedezhuashou。yibudiantikeyijihuoyidongloudejiazhi，bujinlaonianrenshangxialoufangbianle，huanfangxuqiu、zulinxuqiuhezhuangxiuxuqiudengjiezhongerlai，zheifanguolaiyehuidaobishequgonggongfuwudatong“zuihouyigongli”，yanglao、fuyou、wenhuashi、yiliao、zhucan、jiazheng、kuaidi、bianlidiandengjiuyoulexuqiuzhiben，zheihuirangbenyixianruwurendaliheshuaibaixunhuandexiaoquzhongxinhuanfashengji。danshi，jiazhuangdiantiqiaqiajiushilaojiuxiaoqugaizaozuinankendegutou。

jiazhuangdianti，dajiadourenweizheishigehaozhengce，dantuijinqilaiquefeichangbushun，henduoxiangmuzuoyezhudegongzuoyaohua1-2nianshijian，yezhufanhui、“siyebutongyi”deshiqingchangyou。jiuqiyuanyin，jiuzaiyudiloucenghegaoloucengzhijiandeliyiboyi。jiazhuangdiantiduiyidongloudeyingxiang，benzhishangshiloucengjiandefangjiatixibianle。weijiazhuangdiantizhiqian，xiangduiyu3-6loulaishuo，jinguan1-2loucaiguang、tongfengbutaihao，danquemianchulepaloutizhiku。fanyingzaifangjiashang，1-2loudefangjiabingbubi3-6loudiduoshao。danshi，bianchengdiantifangzhihou，loudongdefangjiatixichedibianle。

duiyu5-6loulaishuo，bujindingcengtongfengcaiguanghao，erqieyixiachengle“diantifang”，congzuibudaijiandelouceng，yixiabianchenglexiangbobo。ziran，5-6loudeyezhushijiazhuangdiantidejiandingzhichizhe，zhishizaijutifeiyongchengdanbilishangchechepi，zuihouyidinghuituoxiede；3-4loudeyezhubijiaoaimei。jiazhuangdiantizhiqian，3-4loushihaolouceng，jiyoutongfeng、caiguangdeyoushi，paloutihaibuzenmelei；jiazhuangdiantihou，3-4loukenengbushizuihaodeloucengle。dantongshi，3-4louyenengxiangshoudao“diantifang”dehongli，erfenziqianxiangdui5-6loulaishuohaibingbusuanduo。

suoyi，jiedao、juweizuogongzuoshi，wangwangxianjizhongliliangnaxia3-4louyezhu，daxiaoqi“qiqiangtou”dexiangfa。zheiyang，jiazhuangdiantizhengqiuyijianshi，tongyiyifangdeliliangjiuqiangdale。dui1-2loudeyezhulaishuo，chuledanxindiantihuiyingxiangcaiguang、tongfeng，huichanshengzaoyin，zijihuichidakuizhiwai，gengduodeshijuedebianyidoubei3-6loudezhanle，erzijizhanbudao“diantifang”derenhehaochu。faner，jiazhuangdiantiyihou，1-2loujiuchenglezuichadeloucengle。jiazhuangdiantiqian，ruguoyourenyuanyimaizheidongloudefangzi，1-2louhaishiyigexiangduibucuodexuanze，danjiazhuangdiantizhihou，1-2lougujihennanhuodemaijia、zukedeguanglinle，buhaozhu、buhaozuyegengbuhaomai。

suoyi，yejiubuqiguai，weihedaduoshu1-2loudeyezhu“siyebutongyi”。muqian，quanguo17wangedaigaizaodelaojiuxiaoqu，hejiyaojiazhuang250-300wanbudianti。genjuzhujianbushuju，2018nianquanguolaojiuxiaoqujiazhuangdiantiyiwancheng1 wanduobu，zhengzaishigongdeyou4000duobu，zhengzaibanliqianqishouxudeyou7000duobu。mandamansuan，wanchenglvyebuzu1%，kejianyouduonan。bizherenwei，zhiyoudangzhengdongloudeliyironghezaiyiqi，jiazhuangdiantidewenticaigengrongyibeituijin，erzheiyiqiechuleyaobansuichengkenxieshang、xianghumohewai，liyibuchangcaishiguanjian。

genjubizhediaoyan，danfanzhangqizhuzai1-2loude，henduoshilituixiurenyuan、xiagangzhigong。jinguantamenyongyouzhufang，danbingweifenxiangdaodichanfazhanhechengshihuadeduoshaohongli。xiangfan，guoqufangdichanfazhan，zoudeshizengliangkuozhang、xinqukaifa、cunliangchaiqian（penggai）deyanjinlujing。laojiuxiaoqushizuihoucaibeikandaode，bujingonggongpeitaoyanzhongqueshi、yanzhonglaohua，fangwuneibudejingyuyemeikuangyuxia。yinci，bizherenwei，laojiuxiaoqugaizao，bujinshiweilekuoneixu，zhongyaodeshirangjuzhuzailimianderenqun，nengfenxiangchengshihuahefangdichandehongli。yinci，duiyu1-2loudesuqiu，gengduoyinggaiyijingjibuchangdefangshilaimanzu。zheiyang，bujinnengshunlituidongzhenggexiaoqudegaizao，hainengdaidongzhenggeshequfuxing，cunliangfangzhuangxiu、liuzhuan，jingjizhang，haishifulizhang，zheidoushihuasuande。

（zuozhexiguangdongshengzhufangzhengceyanjiuzhongxinshouxiyanjiuyuan）